Death Valley and the Serpents’ Tooth (Strategy Guide Pt.7)
Posted by: alugoool : Category: Strategies for Blackjack“All of us have bad luck and good luck. The man who persists through the bad luck — who keeps right on going — is the man who is there when the good luck comes — and is ready to receive it.” – Robert Collier
In this chapter I want to reveal to you the method by which I achieve my success at Blackjack but before I do I want to take you back in time to when you were a child.
As a youngster do you remember learning a particular skill or ability – one such as learning to swim or ride a bike? Do you remember the pain and frustration that you went through as you struggled to master the basics and then the seemingly endless effort that you had to make to perfect your art. Tough wasn’t it? Do you also remember the times when you wanted to give up?
The times when the effort seemed pointless and everything that you did went wrong?
However finally and after a lot of perseverance and self-discipline quite suddenly everything that you learnt fell into place? You reached a point when you no longer constantly fell off your bicycle or when you finally managed to complete a whole length of the swimming pool. That single glorious day was when all of the hard work and effort suddenly seemed to be worth while, when the struggle of the early stages were forgotten and you sailed effortlessly into a blissful land in which all of your actions were effortless and successful.
The Serpent’s Tooth Cycle
If you examine each of the various skills that you learnt throughout life you will discover that the same basic pattern of growth/decay/growth is woven into the development of each one. I can’t pretend that I know why this happens it just does!
On the left is a graphic representation of this unique cycle.
Stage 1 – The Rise
At first you start off your chosen task with great enthusiasm. This energy quickly propels you into making rapid progress. This period is called `The Rise’. (Sometimes it is referred to in card playing as `Beginner’s Luck’). In this part of the cycle everything that you do is a success and you learn at a faster pace than at any other time.
Stage 2 – The Peak
However this rapid rise in growth does not continue onwards forever for you do reach a zenith in performance. Most of us are only aware of their highest stage of achievement after it has been reached. Thus this stage is referred to as `The Peak’.
Stage 3 – The Turn
Then suddenly just as you think you know it all along comes a disaster. You fall from your bike, you fail your exam, you crash the car etc. Something happens to suddenly bring to your attention the fact that you do not know it all! No matter what you try to do you all that you experience is continued frustration, failure and defeat. This called `The Turn’.
Stage 4 – The Fall
The rate of decline then appears to accelerate and your enthusiasm for the chosen task falls to its lowest point. It is at this stage that 99% of people give up – probably to move on to try something else. However this decline in fortune does have its limit. Suddenly things change and you start to feel a little more positive about things. This is called `The Fall’.
Stage 4 – The Growth Gradient
From the turn you slowly begin to piece things back together again. Bit by bit you develop a new aptitude for your chosen task. This then continues unabated until finally you begin to realize that you starting to surpass your earlier achievement level. This is called `The Growth Gradient’. Throughout all my various pursuits in life – as a writer, teacher, farmer, musician and businessman I have seen this pattern in operation in every single every key experience of my life. I have seen it happen in the growth patterns of many businesses, whilst teaching students a wide variety of different subjects, during the development of any skill, whilst saving money and much more.
It is also evident in the life cycle of plants and is a well understood and accepted dynamic in the theory of economic cycles. In fact this cycle is observable in every key element to human experience. (As I write this I have witnessed it in operation during the US/Iraqi conflict of April 2003 when rapid early gains in the war gave way to defeat and frustration before a steady climb towards victory) but most importantly of all – it is in evidence in the playing of Online Casino Blackjack!
Applied to Your Gambling
Understanding that this cycle effects ALL of our initiated actions in life (including gambling) gives us a VERY important insight into how to play Blackjack successfully.
All you have to do is to correctly identify the phase that you are in during a game you can modify both your playing and betting styles accordingly.
Let’s take a look at how this operates in practice that is to say, during an actual game of Blackjack. To simplify the matter I have turned the five stages of the Serpent’s Tooth Cycle into four key play phases.
These are:
Play Phase 1 – The Rise
The early phase in a game is always the most advantageous. It is characterized by free-flowing and advantageous play. Leave the game to settle down (probably takes no more that a dozen hands) and from then I recommend loose and aggressive style of play. Double up with confidence and increase your bet size accordingly. (If you like you can play as I do and cash in during this rich and abundant period for smaller – but assured, winnings).
Play Phase 2 – The Fall
This is the stage all gamblers hate the crashing out. It is usually characterized in a game of Blackjack by a prolonged losing streak of us to 12 or more hands. This has been known to wipe a player out completely on many occasions.
When you realize that you are in this phase DO NOT strive to re-coup your losses by increasing your bet size. This will always end in disaster. Just accept the tide is flowing against you and bet only the very minimum amount on each hand.
Play Phase 3 – The Rise
There WILL come a point at which the turn of play changes. The run of losing hands stops, the dust settles and you are left to confront the debris of the disaster. This is the point at which many players either blow what’s left of their pot on one final desperate attempt to save face or they cash in what they have left and depart with their tails between their legs. This is a pity for the miss what turns out to be a golden opportunity to make some money.
At this stage continue placing the minimum bet allowed but return to doubling up and splitting.
Play Phase 4 – The Growth Gradient
The rate of growth during this phase is not as great as when the game first began – however it is consistent.
Once your pot has returned to roughly where you were when you first began the game you can return to a positive and aggressive style of play.
Having successfully seen your way through the difficult early periods of the Serpent’s Tooth Cycle you will enter into this magnificent period in which you consistently win hand after hand. I have entered this stage on many, many occasions and I can tell you it is pure bliss. Every hand that you get throws the dealer into crisis.
Blackjack’ increase in regularity. Consistent doubling up on 13 – 17 ALWAYS produces a 20 or 21 total. Blackjacks appear in proliferation. I have entered this stage in some games that I have played and amassed so much winning money that I have almost felt sorry for the casino!
Following this system through for the first time requires some nerve but once you have experienced it for the first time you will play with renewed confidence in subsequent games. Let me assure you that it is worth the waiting.!
Tip: At what stage you eventually cash in depend upon your intuition. However I generally wait until I am about 25% percent above the amount that I had in my pot at the peak and then create a Stop-Loss point. If I fall below that value I immediately stop the game and cash in.
Tracking the Flow
So how is it possible to identify which period or stage you are during a game? In earlier lessons I impressed upon you the need to keep accurate records of your games. With a little more note taking during a game you will quickly identify the phase that you are in or even coming up to. This is how it is done.
Each time you note down your hand on the sheet take the chance to record each of your winning hands in a different color to a losing hand. I use a red pen to record my winning hands and a blue pen to mark those hands that I have lost.
After each round of about 50 rounds total up the winning (red) hands as well as the losing (blue) hands. Your results will reveals one of three things;
A predominance of red marks – indicating that you are in a positive of rising phase
A predominance of blue marks – indicating that you are in a negative or declining phase
An equal number of each – which indicates that you are either moving in/out of a positive phase or in/out of a declining phase.
As your game progresses monitor total your various amounts in the box provided (W=Total of Won hands and L= Total of Lost hands).
If you keep accurate records you will easily detect over just a few 50-hand cycles which way your luck cycles are taking you. For example you may have had a few rounds in which your total of winning hands has out- stripped those that you have lost. Where this is the case your play is in positive phase.
Then you have a round in which they are equal in number. At this stage you could suspect a slip into a negative phase so you begin to adjust your playing/betting accordingly. The next round also reveals an equal or slight bias to the Loss Total. Then your suspicions are completely confirmed when you find that over the next round the number of your Loss Total is substantially greater than your Win Total. This is evidence that you are in a losing phase and marks a time for careful play.
Continue playing with care until the count returns to indicate a positive phase.
Now this system might seem complicated but it only takes a few minutes to practice and become a natural element to your play. You may feel that it is unnecessarily wieldy given that the pot total reveals how well you are doing. This is the beauty of the Goldhill System for your purse total DOES NOT do not reveal the way that your play is going to progress nor does it accurately reflect how well you are doing.
There are many reasons for this. For example you may win a couple of Blackjacks – even when the phase of play is against you. Because of the higher payment ratio for Blackjacks this would exaggerate the impression of your playing luck by inflating the betting total.It is tempting to bet more when your total is higher and so you could actually be creating problems for yourself later on by inadvertently increasing your betting at a time when your playing phase is against you.
Another reason for not relying upon the betting total is because of the use of Insurance or Doubling Up. Thus it is possible to lose money in a positive playing phase if you make a number of incorrect decisions. Thus your total pot value would fall and you would not be aware of the fact that you are actually in a current positive playing phase!
Tip: Treat your playing statistics with respect and they will repay you time and again by revealing the optimum opportunities, or risks, before they even begin to emerge in the game itself.
Having introduced you to the actual playing system I now want to move on to show you in a practical form you can make this all work for yourself
